Why ClimaTrends?

Our customers often ask us how we make our forecasts. The long answer is our trade secret but the short answer is that ClimaTrends research model uses advanced geometries to analyze normally static data points in a dynamical context. This has become possible through our discovery of zones of influence in the atmosphere linked to eclipses. These zones have been studied for three decades using mapping techniques borrowed from the discipline of projective geometry. The results of this research can be seen in the first image.

1 North American chart with eclipse zones

On this chart of North America and the eastern Pacific several sets of curves can be seen. Twenty years ago it was observed that storms traveling across the eastern Pacific seemed to run into conditions for deepening that could not be explained simply from temperature analysis and upper air profiles. It was also seen that for some unseen reason high pressure areas that were forming blocking ridges would suddenly release their moorings and start drifting along in the polar jet stream. Again, for no apparently good climatological reason a weak high would suddenly stop moving and transform into a drought producing ridge.

It was noticed at that time that the zone for the greatest influence whether towards high pressure or low pressure was consistently found in the same area in a given season.
The first chart shows the zone of greatest influence over the central Gulf of Alaska. In the chart a high is shown blocking at that longitude sending the jet stream (arrow) north and then south around the high ultimately bringing cold wet weather to the West Coast. In the same chart a green diamond is seen. This indicates the placement of another significant area where the maximum disturbance in at any given time can be found. The placement of these curves and the diamond have been determined by dynamic geometrical techniques, coupled to many years of climate observation. In the same chart it can be seen that there is a family of similar curves stretching eastward from the zone of greatest influence. Research has shown that these other areas can also be counted on to produce harmonic effects similar to the area of greatest influence but on a smaller scale. The particular placement of these geometric curves allows our research to pinpoint the emergence of the all important blocking ridges that consistently determine the character of extended trends. To know the position of these features in advance allows for a more dynamic and fluid modeling technique that can approximate future conditions more accurately.

2 Low pressure eclipse zones

In the second image the same zones are depicted but this time the influence is in support of low pressure. The same longitudinal spread is present here but a different influence is active. Research has shown that the fluctuation of high and low pressure influences on these zones alternates rhythmically in cadences that can be predicted well before hand. This rhythmic alternation is the heartbeat of ClimaTrends. It is linked geometrically to the placement of the grid lines and has proved to be capable of robust modeling of systems in flux.

A third piece of the puzzle is the discovery that the curves are also not static but move sedately through time marking each seasonal passage with a distinct quality that seems to return at approximately ten year intervals. This makes the forming of modeling experiments highly effective when used to analyze decadal and inter decadal patterns so influential on climate trends. With these tools it is possible to approach a 70% overall accuracy rate on general trends in weather one or even two years in advance.

What about the Rhythms?

Another question often asked is, “How is this system different than information I can get from public sources or even other private services?” The short answer is that even when it is possible to say that high or low pressure has a greatest chance of showing up in a specific locale the real art is to tell when that will happen and how strong it will be. ClimaTrends is a dynamic system of modeling rather than a static system. This means that in our research it is most important to be able to say when something will happen in the weather for a period of over three days. Standard forecasts routinely use what is happening now to predict what will happen next. This approach is accurate for about three to five days. To go out longer than that requires that the focus be shifted from what is happening now to potentials that are not present on the upper air maps today.

Fifteen years ago we found conclusively that the rhythms of the atmosphere in the upper layers are strongly influenced by the movements of the moon. What happens in the upper atmosphere often is a good indicator of the weather a few days in advance. We use this rhythmic counter-point of the flow in the upper atmosphere interwoven with the data from the projective geometry research to create dynamically modeled forecasts.
Using these rhythms ClimaTrends researchers can work into the future in a dynamical way to pinpoint trends long before they happen in the physical atmosphere.

Of course this is all of the short answers. Over three decades the models are much more sophisticated than these short descriptions can illustrate. What the models do allow for is a different way of looking at long range forecasting emphasizing the dynamic aspects of weather data rather than simply computing the static aspects.