El Nino Prelude - 1980

In the spring of each year there is the onset of an El Nino pattern that arises in the western Pacific. This is known as the canonical El Nino. Some years it develops into an actual El Nino and in other years it fades in the summer. To understand and eventually forecast which way a future pattern will go it is possible to place the phases of the yearly El Nino event against a backdrop of the direct and retrograde motion of the outer planets. The model that we use for our research has shown that it is possible to see a significant degree of correlation between the canonical or yearly El Nino and planetary movement patterns from December to December over the Pacific. The fundamental principle of this modeling technique is that the rhythmic movements of a planet either westward (retrograde) or eastward (direct) over the Pacific at a particular celestial longitude is often coincident with the rhythms of rising and falling sea surface temperatures in the same longitude terrestrially. To illustrate this phenomenon, the following paper compares Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) for the years between 1980 and 1983 with the actual planetary patterns of eastward direct and westward retrograde motion over the Pacific during those years. This description is of the buildup and emergence of the record El Nino in 1982-83.

1 retrograde and direct motion
To help the reader to orient to these ideas, figure 1 shows the Pacific basin with two planets Mars and Jupiter over the eastern Pacific near Hawaii. The technique that allows for the projection of a planet to a particular longitude is known as geodetic equivalency and it is described in other articles on this website. In the chart Jupiter is moving westward retrograde in a part of the Pacific known to climate scientists as Nino 3.4. Mars is to the west of Jupiter moving in eastward direct motion. The arrows designate these movements. A warm mass of water can be seen between the two planets. It is often the case when two planets are facing off in opposite directions in a small sector of the Pacific that the area between them shows a sudden rise in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). It is also common that when a planet shifts direction either east or west that the area that is opposite to the new direction often shows a cooling trend. The red circles around Mars and Jupiter signify that they have recently changed direction. Two planets changing direction in close quarters and moving into a face off is known in this model as a squeeze. In the western Pacific Venus is seen entering into Nino 4 moving eastward direct. There are no changes in SSTs associated with this phenomenon. It is the interaction of planets at rhythmic intervals that is the fundamental idea of this model. A lone planet transiting a section of the Pacific seldom has a relationship to Sst fluctuations. When the planets are massing and jostling each other over the Pacific that is often a time that is coincident to either El Nino or La Nina events.

2 January 1980
The planetary configurations that were coincident with the 1982 / 83 El Nino can be traced back to January of 1980 (fig 2) when the following combinations of planets were present over the western Pacific. Jupiter was retrograde in the far western Pacific along with Mars. Pluto and Saturn went retrograde in Nino 4 late in the month. In mostly every calendar year this time of the year is the initial stage of a warmth buildup period for the western Pacific. In 1980 the retrograde motion of the cluster of planets in the western Pacific was coincident with an above average SST level in this area at the dateline and just to the east of the dateline. The direct or eastward motion of Uranus and Neptune was coincident with above average SSTs east of Hawaii. In these articles only SSTs at the equator will be included. The only exceptions will be where extra tropical SSTs become pertinent to the evolution of equatorial temperatures. The general state of the equatorial Pacific at this time was slightly warmer than normal.

3 February 1980
In February Uranus went into retrograde or westward motion near Hawaii. That movement was coincident with a slight cooling trend in Nino 1+2 and an enhanced warming trend to the west.

4 March 1980
In March 1980 (fig 4) Neptune went into retrograde motion near Hawaii in Nino 3.4. This motion was coincident with a general rise in SSTs near the dateline at that time. In general the various retrograde motions in the western Pacific from March to June of 1980 were coincident with a 1degree above average temperature anomaly in that area. At the same time SSTs in the eastern Pacific were below average and falling. This kind of pattern is in line with the model.

5 April / May 1980
In April (fig 5) Jupiter went direct in the far western Pacific and Nino 4. This movement was coincident with a weak cooling trend in the Indian Ocean far to the west, while SSTs in Nino 4 to the east maintained an above average condition. In April the center of warmth near the dateline that had been to the west in Nino 4 shifted to the sector east of the dateline. This was coincident with the Jupiter shift to the west of Nino 4.

6 May 1980
In May, Saturn went into eastward direct motion in Nino 4. Now Jupiter and Saturn were moving eastward in the western Pacific. In May there was a significant shift of warm water into a broad area around the dateline. The cool sector of the eastern Pacific had faded in May as a general shift of warmth towards the dateline at the equator became evident. This shift was coincident with the eastward shift in movements of Jupiter and Saturn in Nino 4. This trend continued through June 1980. At the end of June Pluto moved direct in Nino 4.

7 June 1980
In June (fig 7) a temperature drop of 1/2 degree F. occurred in the mid Pacific, between the dateline and in Nino 3 east of Hawaii. The westward retrograde motion of Uranus and Neptune was coincident with a general cooling trend to the east of these planets bringing temperatures towards normal along the equator in the eastern Pacific. SSTs in Nino 3 cooled towards neutral. This trend conforms to the model that retrograde motions are most often coincident with the migration of warm water to the west. Direct or eastward movements are most often coincident with the migration of warm water to the east with cooling to the west.
By the end of June, Pluto was also moving eastward direct as the western Pacific cooled. As a result, the area of the dateline at the beginning of July was the site of a squeeze with SSTs at the dateline in June 1980 above normal.

8 July 1980
In July Mars entered Nino 4 early in the month while moving at a rapid pace. The initial response at the equator in the Pacific was a scattering of warmth away from the equator over most of the eastern Pacific and a concentration of warmth in small but intense pockets near the dateline. As Mars progressed eastward through the month it encountered Jupiter in western Nino 4, and then Saturn in central Nino 4. The overtaking of a slower planet by a faster moving planet is often accompanied by a sudden spike in SSTs in the area of the passage or transit. This was the case in July 1980 as Mars moved eastward towards the dateline at a critical time junction for the development of an El Nino event. At the end of July just as Mars was about to overtake Pluto in Nino 4 Uranus went into eastward direct motion just east of the dateline. At that time the complexion of the whole Pacific was shifting into a dynamic rather than passive mode. This pattern continued through August 1980. By the end of August Neptune also went eastward direct in Nino 3.4 and Mars had crossed Pluto All planets over the Pacific were now direct. But any warmth that had formed at the dateline in the important months of June and July had been dissipated over the east Pacific by the normal flow of seasonal patterns and a scattered cooling trend was underway in several areas of the equatorial Pacific east of the dateline.

9 September / October 1980
By September of 1980 Mars had moved from the middle of Nino 4 to the longitude of Hawaii in Nino 3.4. In this movement it crossed Uranus near the Hawaii in September. This crossing was coincident with slightly warmer than normal temperatures in Nino 3.4. This slight warming was dissipated by the end of September. In this response we can see the signature of the Mars transit. The crossing of another planet by a Mars transit is very often coincident with a brief rise in SSTs. This brief rise follows the planet eastward like a wave. This wave can become significant if it is timed to be coincident to the presence of a strong warmth pool. The timing of the Mars passage is critical. If it is too early then the warmth is dissipated before it can be built. In this instance Mars is at the dateline too late to pick up the canonical surge there just after midsummer. Mars movements generally create brief spikes in temperature that are not sustained after the passage unless there are deeper rhythms and squeezes between slower planets involved. Also, when the general temperatures in the eastern Pacific in the fall are dwindling then the passage of Mars into the coast in the fall can be coincident with a migration of cool water to the east. That was the case in September and October of 1980.
In the western Pacific a loop of Mercury in Nino 4 was coincident with a sudden burst of warmth west of the dateline. The warmth was short lived as Mercury, moving west, picked up speed. Warmth moved out of the dateline area at that time and migrated extra tropically into the western Pacific.

10 November / December 1980
By November / December of 1980 (fig 10) Mars had moved from just east of Hawaii in Nino 3.4 to the middle of Nino 3. This was coincident with a modest peak of a 1/2 degree rise in temperature in Nino 3 at that time. In general, a Mars transit of the eastern Pacific ending in eastern Nino 3.4 in December would be a good signal for the onset of an El Nino. 1980 was a slightly warm / neutral year in eastern Nino 3.4. The fading pool of warm water in the eastern Pacific in September had turned slightly warm again as several events unfolded in the movements of the planets.

The first event was that the migration of warmth into Nino 3.4 was coincident with the arrival of Mars into that sector of the Pacific. This is in line with the wave model of Mars described earlier. The Mars passage was coincident with the appearance of a small pool of warmth in Nino 3.4 at the years end.

A second interesting pattern is the sudden fading of the warmth pool at the dateline in early November. This is significant when we consider that in the middle of October of 1980 Mercury went westward retrograde at the dateline. This was coincident with flow of warm water out of the dateline area at that time towards the western Pacific. The retrograde Mercury was coincident with rising SSTs in Nino 4 and a radical diminishing of warmth at the dateline itself. It is interesting to contemplate that had Mercury accompanied Mars into the eastern Pacific without moving into retrograde westward motion in 1980, most likely there would have been a much stronger warmth event in Nino 3.4 in December.

11 Jupiter movements across the Pacific
A third element to be considered in these patterns leading up to the great El Nino of 1982-83 is that our research has revealed that the position of Jupiter in relation to the dateline is apparently a very problematic influence on the potential unfolding of an El Nino. From 1980 to 1983 Jupiter was slowly working across the western Pacific towards the dateline. This movement was coincident with a slow movement of warmth from Indonesia into the central Pacific during those years. The eastward edge of the warmth flow followed Jupiter very exactly across the Pacific for the first few years of the decade.

In 1980 Jupiter was still to the west of the dateline and any warmth in the central Pacific was often dispersed into a general warmth pool without ending up migrating to the east. This dispersing pattern was coincident with a series of retrograde loops of both Mars and Mercury in the western Pacific at critical times in the evolution of an El Nino impulse. As the syncopation between the slow Jupiter progression across the western Pacific and the position of the Mars and Mercury loops worked out through time, the conditions for a strong El Nino grew stronger. From 1977 to 1980 the flow patterns of the outer and inner planets consistently nullified each other in this way. These disturbed flow rhythms were coincident with strong cooling events. From 1980 to 1983 the syncopations began to support the canonical El Nino pattern to a greater degree. This support in the syncopation of the rhythms was coincident with the gradual manifestation of stronger successive El Nino events each year. The final event in 1982-83 was a culmination of planetary rhythms. It was also the culmination of waves of warmth and cold events that were coincident in detail to these planetary movements through time.