El Nino Final stage - 1982-83

1 January 1982
In January and February of 1982 (fig1) Mars was at the western edge of Nino 4 when it stopped moving direct and went into retrograde motion. At that same time Pluto and Saturn also went retrograde. These motions were coincident with warm SSTs in Nino 4. This was in line with the model. At the same time Mercury and Venus were in retrograde motion in the eastern Pacific. These movements were coincident with a warming trend in Nino 3.4 and Nino 3.the retrograde motion of Venus and Mercury created a squeeze pattern with Neptune in the eastern Pacific, the site of the warming. In January 1983 Mercury and Venus would go into retrograde looping in the eastern Pacific in January and February and alter the unfolding of an established El Nino impulse. At the dateline a small cool pool settled between the areas of general warmth along the equator.

2 February 1982
In the middle of February Mercury and Venus went eastward direct in Nino 3 and rapidly moved out of the Pacific. These movements were coincident with the dissolving of the majority of the warmth pools in the eastern Pacific except for a remnant in Nino 3. In the western Pacific, Jupiter went westward retrograde in Nino 4 in the middle of February. This created a group of planets composed of Jupiter, Pluto, Saturn and Mars all moving west in the early winter in the western Pacific. This was coincident with a small cool pool at the dateline and an increase of warmth in Nino 4 and beyond into the far western Pacific. By the end of February these conditions had worked out to a growing neutral condition at the equator itself, with pockets of warmth spread all over the Pacific most notably in the far west and a weak pool of warmth in the far eastern Pacific.

3 March 1982
In March of 1982 as Uranus and Neptune went retrograde in Nino 3.4. This meant that all planets over the Pacific were moving westward from Hawaii west to Indonesia. Residual warmth from the events of 1981 was present as pockets of warmth in the western Pacific at that time. With the motion of Uranus and Neptune moving west the warmth in the eastern Pacific began to dissolve and in its place a cold tongue began to form off of Peru and move west along the equator.

This surge of the coastal upwelling was the seed of a cooling event forming along the Peruvian coast. Since all other planets on the chart were moving to the west the placement of a growing warmth pool in the west and a sharp cool sector in the east was in line with the model. By the end of March it looked as if there might even be a La Nina cooling event shaping up along the equator in the eastern Pacific.

4 April 1982
In April however, the dateline area began to heat up as warmth from the western Pacific that was present in winter began to migrate canonically to the east and accumulate at mid Pacific. No changes in motion took place for any planet in April so the patterns that were in place in the late winter deepened as part of the eastward migration of warmth in spring that forms the canonical El Nino. The surge of cold along the equator that began in March terminated as the area of the dateline began to warm. The most rapidly warming area in the Pacific at this time was between Nino 3.4 and the dateline. It should be noted that the warmth didn’t center around the equator at this time so it really was not an El Nino event in the classical sense. It was an unusual warming of the extra tropical Pacific. The Sun had moved across the equator in March and the ocean to the north of the equator was filling with warmth but the Kelvin wave activity that characterizes an El Nino event had not taken place. Kelvin waves are large eastward propagating ocean swells that move from the dateline towards Peru starting in July of an El Nino year. The large slow moving waves carry warm water along the equator and serve as the driving force of an El Nino. The generation of these waves is more of a summer pattern when storms at the dateline can start the waves that drive the warm surface water towards the coast of Peru. The warming at this time was not a full Kelvin wave pattern. It was just a prelude.

5 May 1982
In the middle of May 1982 Mars went eastward direct in western Nino 4. This motion was coincident with a brief and slight fall of SSTs to the west even though the temperatures were actually above average. Typically at this time when there is much warmth in the western Pacific a cooling trend sets into Nino 4 as the warm water begins to migrate to the east. In May 1982 this canonical feature resulted in a neutralizing western sector of Nino 4 even though the SSTs in that area remained above average. This shift was coincident with the establishment of a strong warmth center at the dateline and the southward migration of the whole mass of warm water that was extratropical. The equator was now the site of strong anomalous warming patterns. Mars and the canonical El Nino were in sync.

6 June 1982
In mid June 1982 Jupiter and Saturn also went direct in Nino 4. This motion was coincident with a rise in SSTs in Nino 4 and at the dateline. Warmth in the far western Pacific had neutralized and any cold in the east was long gone. By the end of June, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn were moving eastward in the western Pacific and the dateline was showing signs of a strong warming as well as the regions near Neptune in Nino 3.4. Neptune and Uranus were still in retrograde motion opposing the eastward movement of Saturn, Jupiter and Mars.

7 July 1982
Very early in July Pluto went eastward direct in Nino 4. This meant that at the very beginning of the important El Nino month of July, four planets were moving eastward towards the all important dateline area in the mid Pacific. This was coincident with a rise in SSTs in Nino 3.4 to the east of the cluster. The reason why these configurations are important is that the conditions at the dateline in July determine the outcome of the El Nino for that year. In this model, it has been found that a situation where planets are moving towards the dateline in June and July is often coincident with enhanced El Nino events in December.

An added feature in the summer of 1982 was that the convoy of eastward moving planets in the west would form a squeeze pattern with the westward retrograde movements of Uranus and Neptune. This squeeze was coincident with a strong warming of eastern Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. This warming pattern was coincident with the unfolding of the warmth flow in the Pacific focused around the equator between the dateline and the western edge of Nino 3 in July 1982.

8 August 1982
By early August 1982 Jupiter had moved into eastern Nino 4 and was crossed by Mars as Mars was moving rapidly towards Nino 3.4. This was a critical Mars movement at the dateline at a critical time in the canonical Nino year. This motion was in the context of the eastward movements of Jupiter, Pluto and Saturn in direct motion in Nino 4. These combined eastward movements were coincident with a tremendous warmth flow from the dateline towards Hawaii at this time. In early August, at the exact time that Mars was crossing Jupiter just to the west of the dateline, Uranus in western Nino 3.4, just to the east of the dateline, went eastward direct. This happened at the precise time that Mars was passing Jupiter and approaching Uranus from the west. This type of pattern in this model is known as a slingshot because of the tendency for energies to be radically compounded when this type of pattern is involved.The sudden intensification of warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific was remarkable both for its intensity and for the incredible coincidental timing with this complex of movements.

To the west Mercury also entered the picture by coming into western Nino 4 late in the month. As these movements unfolded a strong cooling impulse emerged in the far western Pacific. This is in line with the model. In Nino 3.4 the center of the strongest warming was the squeeze area between Uranus and Neptune. This is in line with the model.

9 September 1982
At the very beginning of September Neptune went direct eastward to the east of Hawaii. This motion was coincident with the development of a moderate warmth tongue from the west coast of Peru. Now all of the planets over the Pacific were moving in direct motion. The center of the warmth had shifted with the Neptune motion and was now in Nino 1+2 and Nino 3. The western Pacific was becoming radically cool as Mars and Mercury joined the movement across the dateline and into the eastern Pacific. At the very end of September Venus entered Nino 4 and at the same time Mercury went into a retrograde loop in a squeeze pattern with Venus. This movement was coincident with the dissolving of the growing cold pool in the western Pacific bringing it into a more neutral condition. The warmth in the east diminished slightly as Mercury went retrograde in the west in the latter part of the month.

10 October 1982
At the beginning of October Mars passed Uranus in Nino 3.4. This was coincident with an enhancement of the warmth tongue in Nino 1+2. In the middle of October Mercury once again went direct in Nino 4. All of the planets over the Pacific were now moving in direct motion. The pool of warmth against the west coast of Peru was again becoming very active in sending out a warmth tongue along the equator towards the dateline. By the end of the month Mars had passed Neptune in Nino 3.4. This was coincident with an extreme burst of warmth from the Peruvian coast that spread along the equator moving west at a rapid pace. In the west Mercury and Venus were now running in tandem with each other near the dateline.

11 November 1982
In November 1982 no planets changed direction other than the constant eastward motions of Mars in the east and Venus and Mercury at the dateline. The extreme warming pattern that had been set in motion in October continued unabated throughout November. By the end of November Venus and Mercury were neck and neck in Nino 3.4 and Mars had reached Nino 3 and the east Pacific at the border between Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 was raging.

12 December 1982
By mid December Mercury was in Nino 3, Venus was in Nino 3 and Mars was in Nino 3. By December 25 Mars had reached the western border of Nino 1+2. By the end of December the trio had reached Nino 1+2. The timing of these movements was unusually precise in order to be coincidental to this record El Nino event. Starting in 1980 the series of loops and squeeze patterns over the three year period shows remarkably coincidental relationships between planetary movements projected onto the Pacific basin and the climatic phenomenon of the El Nino.