El Nino Development stage - 1981

1 January 1981 and 110W ridge
In January 1981 (fig 1) Mars transited the eastern Pacific into Nino 1 &2 and quickly moved beyond. Likewise, Mercury had come out of its loop at mid Pacific in the fall and had moved rapidly into the Atlantic. These movements were coincident with falling SSTs in the eastern Pacific. It can often be observed that when a fast moving planet crosses110W longitude (Nino 3) the SSTs in the eastern Pacific fall. Oceanographers recognize a ridge at this longitude that is linked to the circulation off of Central America. Our observations have revealed that when planets pass the 110W ridge, El Nino energies often fade. In January 1981, at the same time as the Mercury and Mars exited the Pacific, Uranus and Neptune, near Hawaii, were moving in direct motion supporting the ongoing cool trend into the eastern Pacific. The cool water moving east from the dateline was coincident with these movements.

To the west, in Nino 4, a strong cluster of Saturn, Jupiter and Pluto had just turned westward retrograde. The combined motions of this trio were coincident with falling SSTs of the dateline. A slight warming trend to the west of the retrograde group commenced coincidentally to their retrograde shift. Similar to the previous year, in the winter the warmth in the Pacific was centered west of the cluster of retrograde planets in Nino 4. At that time Jupiter had advanced to the longitude of Saturn. The SST developments are in line with the model in which warmth most often develops to the west of a group of planets moving in westward retrograde motion.

In winter 1981 just as was the case in 1980 the overall timing of the warmth creating rhythms of the western cluster of planets had the warmth peaking too early in the year and too far to the west to significantly affect the transfer of warmth at the dateline in June and July. A Mars transit taking place in the fall of the year often is coincident with warmth moving into the eastern Pacific in December. A Mars transit later than December often is coincident with a later blooming El Nino, but the later the transit the more chance there is of failure. Failure of the El Nino is also often coincident with any retrograde motion of a planet at the dateline in the fall. A loop formed anywhere in Nino 3.4 or Nino 3 is often coincident with the cessation of the eastward propagating Kelvin waves from the mid Pacific that support warmth events. In November 1980 Mercury went into westward retrograde motion at the dateline. This was coincident with a failed El Nino. This loop would be repeated in November and December of 1981. This placement of a Mercury retrograde loop in mid Pacific just as an El Nino was beginning to bloom in the eastern Pacific was coincident with the failure of the El Nino impulses in those years.

The timing and positioning of the series of Mercury loops between 1980 and 1983 was in effect countering the influence of Mars that was well placed rhythmically in time to be coincident with El Nino conditions. This was a strong factor in the dynamics of the east Pacific. In the west Pacific the cluster of Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto was going retrograde in sync with winter warmth buildup there. The modifying factor was that the trio was a bit too far to the west during their direct periods to influence the dateline in July in both 1980 and 1981.

Rhythmically, if the cluster of planets in the western Pacific were located further east and closer to the dateline, then they would go direct closer to the important El Nino months of June / July in the mid Pacific. Then, if Mars or Mercury were to cross these planets just as they were going direct, the dateline at midsummer would be the site of strong El Nino energies. If there was no looping from August to December in the eastern Pacific the flow from west to east would be unhindered. From 1980 to 1983 these changes in the rhythmic profile of the motions above the Pacific actually do slowly take place. The slow changes in the rhythms were coincident with the development of a record warmth event in 1982 / 83.

2 February 1981
In February 1981 (fig 2) the retrograde cluster of Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto in the western Pacific was coincident with an average / warm SST reading in that area while temperatures in every other sector of the Pacific were dropping towards neutral and below average. The warmth surge of the previous fall had run its course and the Pacific was returning to a neutral / cold condition.

In 1980 Jupiter was in the western sector of the Pacific leaving the Indian Ocean and entering the Pacific. In 1981 Jupiter had progressed eastward to the middle of Nino 4. The retrograde period of Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto in 1981 was from January to June. This period in time was coincident with a warmth surge in the far western Pacific. Uranus and Neptune in Nino 3.4 were moving eastward direct as the cold upwelling from the Peruvian coast kept the eastern Pacific much below average. Often planets near Hawaii move in sync with the development of the upwelling. Direct motion of warm water in Nino 3.4 results in a warm Kelvin wave induced warming event. Cold water in Nino 3.4 is often coincident with a strengthening of the coastal upwelling such as the La Nina event in winter 1981. These movements were in line with the model.

3 March 1981
In March the breakdown of the cold La Nina pattern in the eastern Pacific was coincident with the retrograde westward motion of Uranus on March 5. At that time the intensity of the coastal upwelling was greatly diminished. As Uranus kept the retrograde westward movement active the cold tongue from Peru first grew weaker and more diffuse but then at the end of March, Neptune joined the retrograde motion in central Nino 3.4 and the scattered cold plume began to reorganize. In the western Pacific weak warming was present in the longitude of the retrograde, Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto.

4 April 1981
In the beginning of April 1981 the extreme eastern Pacific at the equator was once again in a cold phase. Warmth in the western Pacific was still sustained at a moderate level but the cold pattern in the eastern Pacific was developing rapidly. By the end of the month of April 1981 the eastern Pacific was in a full blown cold event. This was coincident with all of the planets over the Pacific being in westward retrograde motion. The enhancement of the cold coastal upwelling emerging along the Peruvian coast and streaming westward along the equator was coincident with the presence of five planets moving westward staring in the longitude of Hawaii and continuing out to Indonesia.

5 May 1981
The cold event began to run out of force in the middle of May. in the eastern Pacific continued through May of 1981. This was coincident with a lack of any planetary movement changes during the month of May as neutral conditions dominated the equator except for a remnant of cold in Nino 1+2 and a seed of warmth at the dateline. Then in the very end of May Jupiter, in western Nino 4 went eastward direct in its motion. At that time a mass of cool water sat to the east of the dateline and a mass of warm water sat to the west of the dateline.

6 June 1981
By June the westward streaming of the cool water had reached an end to the east of the dateline where a pool of cold water was deposited. A remnant of the coastal upwelling in the east in Nino 1+2 was another center of cold water. In the far western Pacific Jupiter moved into eastward direct motion on the last day of May with Saturn moving into eastward direct motion a few days later. There was little change in the cold pool at the dateline for the first half of the month. But by the beginning of the third week the cold pool was showing signs of warming up as the warmth from the western Pacific began to infiltrate the area around the dateline.

This movements towards infiltration of the cold pool with warmth was coincident with the appearance of a tight squeeze pattern between Jupiter, Saturn moving eastward direct and Pluto moving westward retrograde all in Nino 4. SSTs at the time of the squeeze showed the first dynamical shift for several months. Through the spring there were very few confrontations or counter movements among the planets and the Pacific during that same time experienced a period of sustained calm.

7 July 1981
On the first of July, Pluto, shifting to eastward direct motion began moving against Uranus and Neptune. Those two planets were still in retrograde eastward motion in Nino 3.4. By the end of July the cold pool at the dateline was moved to the east and formed several deep cold areas. The general condition of the tropical Pacific through July of 1981 was cooler than normal temperatures in the east with neutral temperatures at the dateline. Aside from the brief flare-up between Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto in June, once again there were no squeeze configurations in the Pacific except for a 40 degree separation between Pluto in the center of Nino 4 and Uranus near the center of Nino 3.4. This became even less an issue when Uranus went direct in August and Neptune went direct in September. These were the only events in the Pacific for all of August and September. The lack of interaction was coincident with very cool temperatures dominating the eastern Pacific from Nino 3.4 to Peru. In the west Nino 4 was the site of a strong warming trend as areas of the western Pacific began to show strong heat signatures. The streaming from the west was coincident with the eastward motion of Jupiter, Saturn, Pluto and late in August, Mercury and Venus made it into Nino 4.

8 September 1981
By September 1981 a pool of warmth in the western Pacific had moved through Nino 4 to the dateline and had entered Nino 3.4. This migration was coincident with the direct motion of Uranus and Neptune bracketing Hawaii and the direct motion of Pluto, Saturn and Jupiter in Nino 4. However, these movements had been in place for a long while and no clear shift in the cold regime for the eastern Pacific was evident. That all changed as soon as Mercury and Venus moved across Nino 4 and then reached the dateline in September. These motions were coincident with a surge of warm water from the west and the rapid dissolution of the intense cold tongue along the equator. The Mercury and Venus encounter with the cluster of Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto was similar in 1981 as it was in 1980. The difference being that in 1981 Jupiter was positioned much farther to the east. The eastward migration of Jupiter put it into a cluster with Pluto, Saturn, Mercury and Venus just west of the dateline. A strong warmth flow from the western Pacific was coincident with these movements. As the warmth flow moved east in earnest from Nino 4 through to the end of September, temperatures at the dateline remained above average and the massive surge of cold in the eastern Pacific broke apart.

9 October 1981
In October (fig 9) Mercury looped at the dateline. It was the only westward moving planet in a very tight cluster of almost every other planet except Mars. This westward moving retrograde shift was coincident with a warming phase for the SSTs in that area. At the time of the Mercury loop, Jupiter and Venus were rapidly moving in direct motion through Nino 4. This made a squeeze between the westward retrograde Mercury and the eastward direct Jupiter, Venus and Saturn in Nino 4. The squeeze was coincident with a blossoming pool of warmth in the area between these planets. To the east, in Nino 3.4, Neptune and Uranus were still in direct motion. These movements were coincident with above average SSTs against the west coast of Peru. This pattern maintained itself through November gradually diminishing in intensity. There were no shifts among the planets in November 1981 nor did Mars cross the Pacific that year.

In the first few months of 1982 the only sector that maintained any real warmth was Nino 4. In the eastern Pacific starting in October at the time of the Mercury loop, the well established pattern of cold SSTs in Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 broke up and warmth began to build to the west of the retrograde position. Once again, a retrograde loop of Mercury, projected to a specific longitude, was coincident with a halt to the advancement of movement in the section of the Pacific east of where the projected loop took place.

10 December 1981
In the chart for December 1981 (fig 10) we can see the Venus retrograde motion in the eastern Pacific in Nino 3. Most often a motion like this at this critical time for the unfolding of the El Nino is coincident with a diminished eastward flow of warm water. This is what happened at this time. A weak pool of warmth formed in the squeeze area between Venus and Neptune in Nino 3.4. Instead of forming a strong warm tongue westward from Peru as is often the case for El Nino the warmth in the Pacific scattered and spread throughout the regions away from the equator except for the western sectors. The westward retrograde movement of Venus in this instance was coincident with a diminished El Nino pattern.

The fading of the El Nino was also coincident with a retrograde loop of Mercury in the far eastern Pacific in the end of January 1982. These loops were coincident with the fading of the El Nino in 1981. In the model we are using a westward retrograde pattern by two closely moving planets in a particular sector most often accompanies a broadened warmth pool in the latitudes north and south of the retrograde planets. At the end of 1981 the western Pacific was the site of a broad pool of warmth that centered on the cluster of planets in Nino 4. This warmth pool set the stage for the blooming of the El Nino the next year when Mars would accompany Mercury and Venus across the Pacific in the fall for a December arrival of all three in Peru.