ClimaTrends researchers use several systems of analysis to form dynamic pictures of future trend shifts in the atmosphere. In the United States research driven by what are termed obscure influences is often denied a serious consideration by the official sources. Obscure influences are anything having to do with the Sun or Moon in relation to weather and climate events. Fortunately in Europe, Russia and Asia there is much more interest in the role of obscure influences on climate. The following examples begin with some observations about tidal influences that can be seen by keen observers and then shift to some examples of sound research based on obscure influences that are available from researchers in other parts of the world. These research techniques form part of the trend analysis protocols in ClimaTrends. We think that you will find them interesting.

Most people recognize that the moon has an influence on the tides. This is an example of an obscure influence since it is primarily the gravitational field of the moon interacting with the water on the earth that creates the rhythmic pulse of the vast tracts of water in the world’s oceans. Hard core physicists deny that the same force acts on the water in our bodies because the pull is so weak but bartenders and emergency room doctors and nurses will attest to the unusually strong obscure influence the moon seems to have on people. The tides are a manifestation of the gradient effect of the force of gravity of the moon. The gradient means that on the side of the earth that is turned to face the moon the gravity field of the moon acts more strongly than on the side of the earth that is facing away from the moon. Image one depicts this effect.

1 gravity gradient for moon and earth

Gravity, one of the weakest cosmic forces weakens with distance geometrically. That means that the gravity field of the moon at position a in figure 1 is much stronger than at position b. As the gravity field of the moon goes through the gradient from A through f it becomes exponentially much weaker at every position. The outcome of that is that the lunar gravity field is working on the earth much more intensely at position a than it is at position f. The lunar effect on the earth is much more intense on the side of the earth facing the moon than it is on the side of the earth that is facing away from the moon. The lunar force diminishes by about 6% from position b to position f. It could even be said that on the side of the earth that is opposite the moon there would be a force counter to the pull of the lunar gravity field since there is 6% “less” gravity. These forces are not so apparent when considering the earth itself but they become observable when the sphere of the oceans is added to the surface of the earth.

2 Shifting tides

In figure 2 the gradient is taken away but the elliptical shape of the ocean layer is seen. The Moon does not just go around the Earth. In reality, the two objects orbit about a common gravitational midpoint, called a barycenter. The barycenter is the place where, in this case, the gravity gradient of the moon and the gravity gradient of the earth balance each other out. It is a kind of moving focal point about which the two bodies are moving through space. Point b in the diagram is the barycenter. Point a is the center of the mass of the water on the lunar side of the earth. This water is closer to the moon than the barycenter so it is being influenced more by the gravity field of the moon. It is being drawn up off of the earth by the gravity wave of the moon as it is passing underneath the moon in the diurnal rotation of the earth. The barycenter at point b is the balance point between the gravity of the earth and moon and point c is the center of mass of the water on the other side of the earth. Point c is in a very much weaker portion of the gravity field of the moon than point a. That means that it is even in a much weaker portion of the lunar gravity gradient than the earth itself. As a result the portion of the earth that is at point c is moving towards the moon and away from the water at point d. The corollary to that is that the water at point d is moving away from the earth. Hence the tidal bulge on the opposite side of the earth. In another age we could have said that the water that is moving away from the earth has an abundance of levity forces. Since that is not a recognized phenomenon today we can’t say that but it was exactly the levity concept that was the support for the cosmological worldview in relation to the cosmos. The alchemists called this mysterious force mercury, or iliaster, or dozens of other names. All of the different names referred to the same phenomenon, a force counter to the earthly force of gravity. But it would go too far here to try to make that link. We can just say that everything having to do with the moon and its influences is not nailed down completely by modern science.

A case in point is the research of Harold Stolov. Stolov was a climate researcher who was tired of hearing claims that the moon had something to do with the weather, especially the claims based on how the moon somehow had an influence on geomagnetic storms. Stolov decided to do a rigorous search of the available data and confirm once and for all in good statistical procedures whether a lunar influence on the upper reaches of the atmosphere had any credence. The results of this work were published in a paper, Variations of Geomagnetic Activity With Lunar Phase , in 1965. In that research Stolov found that there was a reliable statistical relationship between the onset of geomagnetic storms on the earth and the moon. He found that, “An analysis of 31 years of Kp (geomagnetic planetary index) data suggests a genuine variation of geomagnetic disturbance with lunar phase. A broad increase in geomagnetic activity of about 4% begins a half a day after the full moon and lasts for seven days. A broad decrease in geomagnetic activity of about 4% is found for the seven days preceding full moon. The effect is not found during periods of greatest disturbance.”

3 lunar perturbation of the magnetotail

In the diagram we can see an illustration of this principle. The sun at the top of the diagram is the source of what is known as the solar wind. This is a constant but varying source of charged particles moving out from the sun. The solar wind breaks upon the earth (center of diagram, E in a circle). A bow wave is formed on the day side of the earth and a long streamlined tail stretches out behind the earth on the night side for thousands of miles (not to scale). This magnetotail is composed of the geomagnetic lines of the earth that are being distorted by the pressure of the solar wind. In the very center of the tail is a chamber that is the wake of the earth. When the sun is quiet and nothing is causing the wake of the magnetotail to be disturbed, the upper atmosphere of earth is quiet. If the sun is disturbed by a sunspot or solar flare that causes a mass ejection of particles from its surface, the magnetotail can become disturbed. This is then the source of the aurora borealis. The aurora is depicted by the pink vortex train in the center of the magnetotail. In Stolov’s work the presence of a period of active solar magnetic storms would mask the effects of the moon. However when the sun was quiet it was possible to pick out an interesting signal.

The dotted circle represents the orbit of the moon that moves in a counter clockwise direction around the earth. It can be seen that the moon moving from dark to 1st quarter is outside of the field lines of the magnetotail of the earth. At the first quarter the moon begins to enter into the bow wave but it is traveling pretty much parallel to the field lines and expresses few disturbing energies. It is when the moon begins to move from the full to the third quarter on the night side that it is suddenly moving not only across the field lines of the magnetotail but also it is now moving against the flow of the solar wind. The disturbing moon shadow forces are depicted by the blue drop shapes. This is the period in which Stolov found the maximum of disturbing energies in the geomagnetic field lines of earth.

The significance of this finding for climate researchers is that geomagnetic disturbances of the earth send currents of energies down into the north pole region following the field lines of the earth’s magnetic field. These disturbances propagate downward into the lower levels of the atmosphere and can be linked to breakouts of storms from the Polar Regions. What this means for forecasters is that it is possible to detect a rhythmic signal near the times of the full moon for increased polar breakouts. This is still a long way from a forecast but it is a direct link between the rhythms of the moon and weather phenomena.

In his paper Stolov further defines the parameters of this influence. He found that this reaction was most reliable when the moon was crossing the solar ecliptic at the time of the full phase. He found that when the moon was within 4 degrees of the ecliptic the effect was very pronounced and that when the moon was outside of that latitude the effect was not statistically robust. This finding was later researched and found that when the moon was within 1 degree of the ecliptic simultaneous to the full moon the effect was very significant.

These qualifying parameters point out the fundamental task of the researcher who is seeking to link planetary influences to climate trends. The task of isolating one rhythm from another so completely that it can clearly be seen as a provable influence actually masks the synergistic effects of coincidental motion in arc events have on each other in real time climate patterns. It is rarely one rhythmic event in time that ends up being a climate pattern. It is most often a series of interlocking counterpoint rhythms that enhance each other in a particular way that creates a drought or a stormy cycle. None the less good science requires that the smoking gun of causality be found and limited to specific case scenarios.

Stolov found a geomagnetic smoking gun that was most pronounced when the moon was on the ecliptic at the full. The requirement that it be on the ecliptic points to another realm of planetary influence, the effect of planetary declination on what are sometimes called air tides on the earth. The study of air tides takes the planetary influences a step further and provides one more tool in the long range forecasters tool kit. The following links will take you to sites where the issue of planetary declination and weather patterns are explored.

Lunar declination and climate http://docweather.com/4/show/211/

Mars declination studies http://docweather.com/4/show/100/

Mercury declination and El Nino http://docweather.com/4/show/90/